Sun, 19 May 2013 21:44:43 -0800WeeblyFri, 03 May 2013 16:56:00 GMThttp://www.ohiomortgagebestrates.com/2/post/2013/05/market-update-05032013.htmlMBS are down -13/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 104.07), around 12/32
lower than yesterday at this time.



MBS began the session very close to yesterday's closing levels
and dropped swiftly after the release of the Employment report. Against a
consensus forecast of 155K, the economy added 165K jobs in April. The bigger
  news was that the figures for February and March were revised higher by 114K.
  With the revisions, the economy added an average of more than 200K jobs per
  month during the first quarter. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly declined to
  7.5% from 7.6%. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, rose 0.2%
  from last month, matching the consensus. Overall, today's data was
significantly stronger than expected, sending MBS lower. The Dow is up 150
points. ISM Services and Factory Orders will be released at 10:00
et.

]]>Wed, 01 May 2013 14:18:38 GMThttp://www.ohiomortgagebestrates.com/2/post/2013/05/market-update52.htmlMBS are up +6/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 104.14), around 8/32 higher
than yesterday at this time. Early investors may have priced at higher
  levels.



Weaker than expected GDP data lifted MBS this morning. First
quarter GDP increased at a 2.5% rate, below the consensus of 3.0%, but up from
0.4% in the fourth quarter. Strength was seen in consumer spending and
  residential investment. Most economists expect that GDP growth for the entire
  year will be around 2.0%. The Dow is up 10 points. Consumer Sentiment will be
released at 10:00 et.

]]>Wed, 01 May 2013 14:17:27 GMThttp://www.ohiomortgagebestrates.com/2/post/2013/05/market-update51.htmlMBS are up +5/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 104.23), around 2/32 higher
than yesterday at this time.



Weaker than expected labor market data has lifted MBS this
morning. The ADP forecast for private sector job gains in April was just 119K,
far below the consensus of 155K. This may cause investors to lower their
  expectations for Friday's Employment report. The Treasury announced that it
  will auction $72 billion in 3-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr securities next week. The
  Dow is down 50 points. ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending will be
  released at 10:00 et. The Fed announcement will come out around 2:00 et and
  could be a market mover. Investors are looking for the latest news on the Fed's
  view of the labor market and the bond buying
program.

]]>Fri, 26 Apr 2013 15:34:46 GMThttp://www.ohiomortgagebestrates.com/2/post/2013/04/market-update50.htmlMBS are up +6/32 (FNMA 30-yr 3.0 at 104.14), around 8/32 higher
than yesterday at this time. Early investors may have priced at higher
  levels.



Weaker than expected GDP data lifted MBS this morning. First
quarter GDP increased at a 2.5% rate, below the consensus of 3.0%, but up from
0.4% in the fourth quarter. Strength was seen in consumer spending and
  residential investment. Most economists expect that GDP growth for the entire
  year will be around 2.0%. The Dow is up 10 points. Consumer Sentiment will be
released at 10:00 et.

]]>Wed, 16 May 2012 17:01:41 GMThttp://www.ohiomortgagebestrates.com/2/post/2012/05/market-update49.htmlMARKET NEWS Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following the release of stronger than expected economic data and more stock gains. The stock markets are showing another round of moderate gains with the Dow up 47 points and the Nasdaq up 12 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department kicked off today’s economic events with the release of April's Housing Starts early this morning. They announced a surprising jump of 2.6% in new housing construction starts that exceeded forecasts. The report also showed a sizable upward revision to March’s figures, creating a 9.6% increase between February and April. That is a decent sized increase, indicating housing sector strength, making the data negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

Posted mid-morning was April's Industrial Production that also exceeded forecasts with a 1.1% increase in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Since analysts were expecting to see an increase of only 0.5%, this data is also bad news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. Fortunately though, neither of these reports is considered to be highly important to the markets.

We will also get the minutes of the last FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM ET today. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation concerns in the economy and economic growth. The goal is to form opinions about whether the Fed will be able to wait until late 2014 to make a move to either boost economic activity or slow growth to ease inflation concerns. Look for these minutes to influence the markets during late afternoon hours.

The week’s last economic news will be posted tomorrow morning. The Labor Department will give us last week’s unemployment figures early tomorrow morning. They are expected to announce that 365,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down slightly from the previous week’s 367,000. The lower the number of new claims filed, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, since this data tracks only a single week’s worth of new filings, it usually takes a large variance from forecasts for it to cause a noticeable movement in mortgage pricing.

April's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be released by the Conference Board late tomorrow morning. This report attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.2% increase from March's reading, meaning that economic activity is likely to strengthen slightly over the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, while an increase could cause mortgage rates to inch higher tomorrow.



]]>Tue, 15 May 2012 22:25:56 GMThttp://www.ohiomortgagebestrates.com/2/post/2012/05/market-update48.htmlMARKET NEWS Tuesday’s bond market has opened down slightly following a positive opening in stocks and no significant surprises in this morning’s major economic data. The stock markets are showing moderate gains with the Dow up 36 points and the Nasdaq up 17 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but I don’t believe we will see much of a change in this morning’s mortgage rates.

The Commerce Department reported early this morning that April's Retail Sales rose 0.1% when analysts were expecting a 0.2% increase. The reading that excludes more volatile auto sales also rose 0.1% compared to forecasts of 0.2%. Technically, the data is slightly favorable for bonds and mortgage rates because it consumers spent less than expected last month. However, the variance wasn’t enough to raise much concern in the stock markets or optimism in the bond market.

April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was posted early this morning also, but by the Labor Department. They announced that the overall reading did not change from March’s level and that the core reading rose 0.2%. Both readings pegged forecasts, indicating that inflationary pressures remained near expectations last month. That makes the data neutral for bond trading and mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow has three of this week’s reports scheduled, starting with April's Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET. This data measures housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking newly issued permits and actual starts of new home construction. It is expected to show an increase in new starts from March's readings. Since this report is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market, it likely will have little impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The second report of the day is April's Industrial Production at 9:15 AM ET. It measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase in production, indicating that manufacturing activity is growing. A smaller than expected increase in output would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it would indicate that the manufacturing sector is not as strong as thought. This report is just a bit more important to the markets as the earlier housing report, so they both will likely need to show unexpected strength or weakness for them to cause movement in mortgage rates.

Tomorrow's third release is the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation concerns in the economy and economic growth. The goal is to form opinions about the Fed being able to wait until late 2014 to make a move to either boost economic activity or slow growth to ease inflation concerns. Since the minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during afternoon trading tomorrow.



]]>Mon, 14 May 2012 21:42:26 GMThttp://www.ohiomortgagebestrates.com/2/post/2012/05/market-update47.htmlMARKET NEWS

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock weakness. The Dow is currently down 92 points while the Nasdaq has lost 16 points. The bond market is currently up 17/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point over Friday’s morning pricing.

There is nothing of relevance scheduled for release today, leaving bonds to be influenced by stock trading. The rest of the week brings us the release of four pieces of relevant economic news in addition to the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting.

The first important piece of data this week is April's Retail Sales, which will be released at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. It is an extremely important report for the financial markets since it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.6% increase in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Thursday morning as it would signal that economic activity may not be as strong as thought. However, a larger increase could fuel fears of economic growth that would lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates.

April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will also be posted at 8:30 AM ET romorrow. It is similar to last week's PPI report, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. These results will be watched closely and could lead to significant volatility in the bond market and mortgage pricing if they show any surprises. Current forecasts are calling for no change in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two readings because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices, giving analysts a more stable and reliable measurement of inflation.

Overall, it looks like we may see the most activity tomorrow with the two most important reports of the week scheduled. Wednesday could also be active while Friday is the best candidate for calmest day unless something unexpected happens. However, sizable gains or losses in the major stock indexes could influence bonds and mortgage rates more than a good part of this week's economic data can. Therefore, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

]]>Wed, 09 May 2012 19:56:04 GMThttp://www.ohiomortgagebestrates.com/2/post/2012/05/market-update46.htmlMARKET NEWS

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory for the third straight day. This is a result of more concern in the stock markets about the political issues in Greece that could undermine their recent bailout and other financial issues overseas. The Dow is currently down 133 points while the Nasdaq has lost 32 points. Those early losses have the Dow below 12,800 and the Nasdaq approaching 2,900, which could signal much more weakness in the near future if they don’t soon rebound above 13,000 and 3,000 respectively.

The bond market is currently up 8/32, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield down to 1.81%. This will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates slightly, but we still have not seen rates move lower proportionally to the recent downward trend in stocks. That indicates resistance to allowing mortgage bonds to improve much more and raises the risk of floating an interest rate (at least short-term) if comparing to the potential gains. In other words, it is hard to see where rates can improve much more in the immediate future while there are risk factors of rates spiking higher with a solid day of gains in stocks. Therefore, I remain cautious with my short-term recommendations.

As has been the case each day so far this week, there is nothing of relevance to mortgage rates in terms of economic reports or other events scheduled for this morning. We do however, have the 10-year Treasury Note auction today. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If it was met with a strong demand from investors, particularly international buyers, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding in the sale, meaning longer-term securities are losing their appeal, could lead to higher mortgage pricing this afternoon.

There are two pieces of economic data being released tomorrow in addition to the 30-year Bond auction. The first comes from the Labor Department, who will post last week’s unemployment numbers. They are expected to announce that 365,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, matching the previous week’s total. Worth noting though is a recent pattern of upward revisions to the previous week’s number of claims, so another revision could make last week’s figures appear to be a decline if we do indeed see 365,000. However, since this data tracks only a single week’s worth of new claims, it usually has a minimal impact on bond trading and mortgage rates unless it shows a significant surprise.

March's Goods and Services Trade Balance report will also be released early tomorrow morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but likely will not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a $50.2 billion trade deficit, but it is the least important of this week's data and likely will have little influence on tomorrow's mortgage pricing.


]]>Tue, 08 May 2012 20:53:58 GMThttp://www.ohiomortgagebestrates.com/2/post/2012/05/market-update45.htmlMARKET NEWS

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory again following another morning of stock weakness. The Dow is currently down 159 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 49 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data or other events scheduled for today, leaving bond prices and mortgage rates to be influenced mostly by stock market movements. Stocks opened yesterday well into negative ground, but rallied during afternoon trading. The Dow still closed in the red but the Nasdaq broke into positive ground. This morning’s stock losses are much wider than they were at this time yesterday, so a full recovery this afternoon isn’t nearly as likely as it was Monday. On the other hand, mortgage bonds are not exactly staging a rally despite the 150+ point drop in the Dow. This keeps me cautious towards mortgage rates, especially since we bond yields are at the low end of their recent trading range.

If the major stock indexes bounce from their current mid-morning levels as they did yesterday afternoon, we could see bond prices give up this morning’s improvements. That could translate into an upward revision to mortgage rates later this afternoon. However, if the overseas news is actually playing out in today’s trading rather than yesterday and stock prices move even lower, we should see a small improvement to mortgage pricing later today.

Tomorrow also does not have any relevant economic news scheduled for release, but the Treasury will hold a 10-year Note auction. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If it was met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding in the sale, meaning longer-term securities are losing their appeal, could lead to higher mortgage pricing late tomorrow.

]]>Mon, 07 May 2012 16:45:32 GMThttp://www.ohiomortgagebestrates.com/2/post/2012/05/market-update44.html